Tuesday, October 07, 2014

Data on output in the production industries indicate a slowing of the recovery. As recently as March of this year, year-on-year growth in this sector was healthy at well above 3%. The latest figures show this measure slowing down to a little over 1% - and the seasonally adjusted figures show no month-on-month growth.

Further, applying my neural network forecaster to these data suggests that the next year or so will see a decline (albeit short lived) in industrial output. This may well be a pessimistic forecast - it does not take into account the surge in business investment that we have seen over recent months. But it does serve as a warning that some aspects of the current recovery are still rather more fragile than might be desirable.