Tuesday, November 08, 2016

The latest data on industrial production show a year on year rise of some 0.3%, but a month-on-month fall of 0.4%. The quarterly data show a fall of some 0.5% in the third quarter of this year - the first complete quarter since the Brexit referendum. While some parts of the economy have so far proved resilient to the outcome of that vote - stimulated by the cheaper pound - other sectors are clearly already struggling. In particular, manufacturing output has fallen over the quarter by some 0.9%.

Using my neural network forecaster to look ahead continues to suggest that this series is likely to dip over the medium term. Forecasting is always a hazardous activity, but at no time more so than this, given the uncertainties that remain over how Brexit is to be implemented.