Friday, February 20, 2009
Casey Mulligan has produced a provocative article which suggests that the recession in the US is driven by supply side factors. I have repeated his exercise for the UK, and find that the recession in this country is very much driven by demand factors. Between the last quarter of 2007 and the last quarter of 2008, the fall in employment was very marginal - just 0.1%. The fall in productivity over this period was relatively large, however, at 0.7%. Unsurprisingly in the context of global slowdown, the demand curve for labour has shifted down.
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